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Natural gas, the once in the world energy order just oil "karstens" character, are now quietly to go global big game center stage.
In the current from the dollar in the world economic system of global currency, plays a special role oil: oil are not only the most "bulk" of commodities, but also the "collateral" $in disguised form, supporting the dollar status; Besides oil futures or financial derivatives system important foundation, in the global financial system in place. The special position of the oil derived from it is almost all industrial production process and process of the the most important raw materials.
However, with the arrival of the "peak oil" and natural gas in both demand and supply in the occurrence of a revolutionary change, the future of new energy demand will be the most by natural gas to meet. The international energy agency (IEA) in the energy technology outlook 2010 "expect benchmark scene, global demand for gas from 2007 to 2050 would increase by about 85%, from 2.52 billion tons to 4.653 billion tons BiaoZhunMei rise BiaoZhunMei; By contrast, the 2050 global oil demand will be 23% lower than in 2007.
Natural gas will inevitably lead to the rise of status of origin, drilling, trade route the key link control of the race, but the most core link is for pricing. And to determine the price of oil has been dominated by American and British different, natural gas pricing is still ?
"Big Game" (The Great Game) a word originally refers to The early s to 1907 years Britain and Russia for control of central Asia at The one hundred race, this is actually lower to The global competition, as The Great British diplomats KouSong marquis in 1898 said: "Afghanistan, bordering The Caspian sea area, The Persian gulf... to British speaking is inning of The board is The box, this dish chess bet is The world sovereignty." After the second world war, "big game" drawn out of the global strategy for alleged lower geopolitical race, such as the United States military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan are called "new game". Interestingly, the key of natural gas pricing game between the point, also will be located in central Asia and the Caspian sea area. I'm afraid that this is a relationship to the future will dominate the global economy by who
Demand for gas "WuZiDengKe"
March 11, 2011, Japan experienced the magnitude 9.0 earthquake, earthquake induced tsunami caused serious nuclear spills. Because the Japanese nuclear leak caused by the "nuclear panic", Germany and Japan have issued the "disarmament" plan. Germany announced in May 2011, 2022 years before closing domestic all 17 nuclear power plants. Japan is in 2012 January 6, promulgated the "nuclear material and reactor Taiwan" the new amendment, provisions of the nuclear power plant operation period for 40 years. Because Japan most nuclear reactor running time in 1987 years ago, so it means that Japan will in 2027 basic disarmament.
As the world's third and fourth largest economy, Japan and Germany's nuclear program will no doubt have to world energy pattern produce huge ?
Before the earthquake energy structure characteristics of Japan is highly dependent on nuclear power and natural gas. According to the international energy agency official data, 2007 Japan a source of energy in nuclear energy accounted for 25.6%, natural gas accounted for 27.4%. After the disarmament, Japan's natural gas consumption will be greatly increased.
At present Japan's having more than 20 a natural gas power plant, the world of top 20 natural gas power plants, Japan accounted for 12. These natural gas power plants "appetite" before earthquakes is quite amazing, according to the BP world energy statistics review data, 2010 Japanese liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to the world of liquefied natural gas (LNG) 38.5% of total imports. And after the earthquake, 2011 April to September period, Japanese imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) went up 21%.
Before the earthquake in Japan energy structure of nuclear power, which has a special position, in March 2007 on the introduction of the Japanese "energy basic plan," established "nuclear nations plan", planning to account for nuclear power than increased to 30% from 40% to. But now, with Japan and Germany "disarmament" plan, the promulgation of the expected future nuclear power will gradually decrease, in Japan and Germany energy structure of nuclear free position, to a great extent required by gas and other energy to fill, the future of the global energy supply and demand structure will be a huge hit.
In fact, even if not happened Japan "3 · 11" earthquake caused the future demand for natural gas in emergencies, the global demand for natural gas is also expected was a consistent high growth situation, this is mainly because
From the following five aspects of demand is growing.
The first is as global oil production peak arrival, oil supply growth difficult, natural gas as alternative energy demand soar.
"Peak oil" is the geologists harbert put forward in 1949 a theoretical hypothesis, this hypothesis think oil production will comply with the change rule of normal distribution of "bell curve", that is, after a period of taking off "climbing" later, there is a no longer growth peak, will then to "down". Now the "peak oil" is a hot research field energy industry, to the world peak oil production when will the arrival, a variety of different research. But, in the 21 century, the world oil output in almost every year 3.6 billion tons wander up and down is the fact that does not dispute. Although this is not generation
In this case, for a long time is not fully developed the natural gas, is as oil alternative energy and cause extensive attention. In fact, 2000 in 2007 to in, global trade volume of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has more than doubled.
The second is the need to reduce the emissions of carbon. Natural gas as a clean energy, will be in carbon political to play an important role. The main components of methane gas is, most of the products are completely after burning the water vapor, carbon dioxide produces only a small amount, its carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to only 54% of the oil, coal of 48%. 2011 years of durban world conference on climate change before, "low nuclear, high gas scene" began to enter into the carbon emissions agenda. From climate change negotiations the current process to see, "green climate fund" may become a future international carbon emissions trading and technology transfer amount of the main operation platform. To fund such JinRongHua platform for, natural gas than nuclear technology, apparently clean-coal technology such as solar, wind, and emission reduction projects easier to operate. Therefore, ?
The third is natural gas energy vehicles rapid development in recent years, great drive the gas demand. According to the International Association of Natural Gas vehicle (International Association of Natural Gas Vehicles) statistics, period, 2003 to 2008, the world all kinds of Natural Gas vehicle growth total nearly 2 times; Over the same period, the number of the world's natural gas station car from nearly 6600 a rose to 14300 seats, an increase of 117%. By the end of 2010, the global auto possession of natural gas has been more than 12.67 million vehicles. And these growth Numbers, is in North America has a slight decrease in natural gas vehicle won.
At present, the United States has put forward with natural gas car in North America and the strategic plan, this is March 30, 2011 President Obama in energy strategy announced in his speech "by 2015, the American government departments shall ensure that all roads in new car to be able to use hybrid and electric power, including the alternative energy". And the policy in fact also implied a "mystery" : the United States now is under construction in the power station are based on natural gas by 90% as a source of energy. It also shows that demand for natural gas for the high growth caused by the fourth factors-power demand.
The final factor is natural gas chemical industry development. Natural gas is a variety of chemical products of main raw materials, such as formaldehyde, urea, ammonia, methanol, ethylene, etc. In fact, using natural gas as raw material to produce the most important organic chemical basic raw materials ethylene, its production efficiency than using naphtha and light oil fractions of ethylene production about 1 times higher. But the current world only about 39% of the vinyl is a natural gas as raw materials, mainly with the naphtha ethylene production, is because the natural gas production by past and trade restrictions. In addition, natural gas or a new energy sources, the main raw materials, the hydrogen. As the world's natural gas market development and natural gas chemical factory continuously new, natural gas as a chemical raw materials demand will also soars ?
The demand for gas five factors, make natural gas needs must inevitably face of structural high-growth; And on the other hand, the natural gas supply side has a significant change, enough to support the growth of demand.