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Because this winter may is still a "winter", Canada gas exports is expected to continue to decline, affected by this us natural gas production will be increased, in order to meet its domestic demand growth.
The forecast from John DE securities co., LTD. (GHS) in the recently released a report. The report pointed out that, in order to improve natural gas inventories, the United States in the second half of 2013 natural gas production will continue to increase, the price will also has rise up. This, of course, and the United States shale gas export strategy and Canada in quantity of natural gas are relationship.
GHS analysts believe that investment Banks for energy, metals, mining, shipbuilding and other areas of high enthusiasm to this winter energy demand prospect good, even better than the earlier the United States energy information administration (EIA) to make short-term energy demand forecast.
The report chief analyst Brian PuLao's opinion, because winter increased domestic demand for gas, Canada in 2011 gas exports declined, and the circumstance this year estimated also won't have too big change. Because the United States imported natural gas mainly comes from Canada, so Canada exports to America's natural gas production will also declined. But the United States should have been able to adapt to use their own natural gas production to make up for the decline of exports of Canada.
In addition there are some signs that Canada's natural gas industry activity declined. This year the average monthly gas approved project is only 100, well below 2011. "Data shows that, compared with natural gas project, oil projects more popular." PuLao pedicle said.
Canada output of natural gas since 2006 gradually declined, and this is precisely the United States gas rise period. Shale gas large-scale commercial development of natural gas market formed a huge impact of natural gas, high inventory to its price cannot recover after a setback. But the good news is that winter really pull the natural gas demand growth.
This year winter Canada domestic natural gas demand will continue to grow, is expected to increase 1 billion cubic feet per day to 1.5 billion cubic feet per day, affected by this export to the United States, I'm afraid of natural gas will also continue to fall. EIA data showed that in Canada in 2012, exports to the United States of natural gas in addition to the LNG will reduce 200 million cubic feet per day.
For the upcoming winter, the weather forecast departments are the low temperature prediction, especially north such as Alaska, etc. From 2012 to 2013, winter heating period average temperature although will higher than average 30 years, but compared with the same period in 2011 still partial cold weather. In addition, the EIA data display, September us natural gas inventories for 3.7 trillion cubic feet, higher than the 8% level. EIA also said in 2012, natural gas is expected to average per million British thermal unit $2.71, 2013 natural gas prices will ascend to per million British thermal unit $3.35.
The report also pointed out that this year net exports of Canada natural gas will drop at least 500 million cubic feet per day. And PuLao's opinion, if the Canadian civil natural gas demand to rise, then the digital and could rise further. Natural gas production is declining exports is also one of the reasons for the fall. February Canada gas output for 15 billion cubic feet per day, July, descend to 13.5 billion cubic feet per day.
At present, Canada's natural gas inventories have reached almost five years of peak. Plus domestic natural gas investment environment in cold and project ShenPiLiang glide, this winter natural gas exploration and development market is unlikely to hot up again.
PuLao pedicle said: "now the American natural gas development environment is obviously in Canada, the Canadian reduce exports to the United States in natural gas quantity will not only improve America's natural gas prices, but also between the two countries in natural gas development gap." Natural gas prices although will make Canada benefit, but the United States will gain more