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Gazprom (Gazprom) should feel afraid. Because of shale gas revolution, the United States has replaced Russian as the world's largest natural gas producers, Moscow may soon be lost to the European natural gas market control.
The plight of Gazprom
Come up from mathematics calculation, Europe to the Russian people pay for price is too high, and not from the natural gas revolution get any advantage. The United States shale gas revolution makes the price of natural gas to drop considerably. At present, Russia per unit of the natural gas price is $10, while the United States sell only $3.
There's another factor that should consider to come in. Due to the United States in natural gas has achieve self-sufficiency, originally exports to the us of liquefied natural gas (LNG) countries also began to transfer the European market. The Russian state of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) the price is about half the price Gazprom. It also encourages Gazprom cut to the western European countries export selling price, but still can maintain Gazprom to eastern Europe market control.
Moreover, Gazprom own business also encountered problems. As the world's largest natural gas manufacturers, Gazprom is only 2011 years of profit is 44 billion dollars. But this year is not so optimistic. September this year, Gazprom results shows that corporate profits fell by 25%. Because of lack of money, the company also cancelled a new oil and gas fields development plan. Similarly, Gazprom recently was Pakistan played a. The latter refused to jointly build Gazprom from Iran to India petroleum pipeline Pakistan section, Mr Putin to cancel the Pakistani state visit.
In order to deal with these challenges, Gazprom began to eye on the east, especially in Indonesia, India, Japan and China. But even in an increasingly serious situation, Russia still in China is tough. The kremlin hope Beijing for the planned altay gas pipeline paid $14 billion, accounting for 40% of the total investment. Altay natural gas pipeline from Russia through China, total length of 3000 km. Capital construction pipeline may make China in the natural gas price get some concessions, but it looks like that don't tell that to China.
Then look at Gazprom and the kremlin's corruption problem. Two years ago, the Russian opposition had published a compelling brochure, disclosure of Mr Putin's henchmen in Gazprom pipeline construction in collect kickbacks. Since 2008, Gazprom shareholder dividends from $365 billion to $120 billion down.
The European Union investigation
September 9,, the European Union antitrust authorities launched to Gazprom official survey. Survey is the core of the Gazprom whether to use its natural gas market in the European Union the dominant position, in central and eastern Europe pressed its competitors, push the high gas prices. Gazprom to the eu gas supply accounts for about a quarter of the total amount.
Obviously, the eu believes that natural gas prices will remain in the low post, or never dare to start to Gazprom investigation. Survey soon have effect. Under the pressure, Gazprom announced on September 29 to Europe's channels and logistics assets restructuring. As long as the European Union adhere to the position, will get final victory. Of course this also depends on natural gas prices, as long as the first signs of trouble, the European Union may shrink back.
In the review the eu's survey, Mr Putin said Gazprom price in long-term contract have indicated, the European Union also never before to these terms and conditions had any questions. This is very interesting. It is shale gas revolution and the natural gas prices at the bottom of the exploration for the European provides questioned the price clause of the opportunity. In other words, this is the first time feel strength against Gazprom.
Russia's wrestling beauty
In 2009, Gazprom committed a serious mistake, it due to the price dispute and cut Ukraine's natural gas supply. This is the eastern and Western Europe between the political game. This really confirmed Gazaprom great (blog, micro Po) of power, but also the first times to let the European Union has power to seek out of Russian energy control method. The eu's this effort the slowness of the progress, the paper put forwards several only without spectrum of pipeline construction plan, but Gazprom can't expected shale gas revolution breaking this impasse.
Politically, the European Union and the United States will focus on Gazprom has decreased the power base. Gazprom has always been the kremlin is the most effective political tool, once its usefulness began to abate, so the original geopolitical pattern will be changed. However, Gazprom still firmly believe that shale gas revolution is not to worry. Gazprom think that for shale gas investment will soon stagnation, and natural gas price will be rising, export opportunities come with it.
If Washington hope to weaken the power of the Gazprom, the best way is to increase the export. If the us commitment of gas exports, Gazprom will be further blow. But this sensitive issue in before the end of the election will not have any conclusion. Obama government on this issue are also from the sierra club, etc group pressure. Sierra club is the oldest, influence the biggest environmental groups, the club think export natural gas will lead to price rise. Even so, the United States eventually possible natural gas exports, because it accord with the interests of gas producers. And politically, if the United States began to export natural gas, the European Union will have more chips and Russia wrestlin