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· the mainland import and export data far Hudson expectations.
· critics point to, if the mainland to speed up the pace of reform, long-term help increase the mainland of their own needs.
· in the mainland of the reform premise, some industry such as natural gas and can benefit from the securities industry.
Financial web site-the Hong Kong media reports, import and export and solid cast weak, to drive economic growth, and to speed up the mainland own demand growth. Critics think, through China can speed up the reform, to achieve the effect of pulling demand. From now on view, many industries have long-term investment opportunities.
The mainland of import and export data released yesterday is far worse than expected, reflecting foreign demand fluctuation, domestic market also "valley well up". Market expectations, published today in the first four months for solid growth plunged to 20.5%, the highest in the low since 2003. Foreign demand fluctuation, domestic demand valley well up, solid shots slow growth, the mainland economy how long maintained a fast growth?
According to the mainland media quoted many experts point out that, it can't control the economy, but by investment drive is not sustainable, at present the restriction of China's economic growth long-term factors, the main problem is unbalanced structure, it will speed up the taxation, finance, price, enterprise, income distribution system reform.
Beijing university and China national economic accounting and economic growth, deputy director of the research center CaiZhiZhou points out that, to help enterprise through the negative growth through, mainly through structural tax cuts. The Chinese academy of social sciences quantity economy and technology economy, deputy director of institute LiXueSong refers to, only through adjusting structure, transformation of the mode of economic development, eliminate various restricted economic development of the system barrier to realize fast yet steady long-term economic development.
The mainland has in recent years of reform, including taxation, finance, price, income distribution, the substance of the policy, including RMB internationalization, minimum wage, the high threshold raised, natural gas prices reform, etc.
Support the long-term economic growth
The above reform if successful, long term is expected to support economic growth. Such as natural gas prices reform, short-term gas price will rise, but long term will make gas company has increased supply of incentives, and make natural gas more popular, consumption structure more reasonable. Moreover, gas price rise, help to encourage increased with the use benefit of home.
Finance and tax and income distribution policy, mainly is the financial policies, such as structural tax cuts, threshold improve, improve enterprise profit negative growth and income, long-term good corporate profits and consumer can, help economic growth. As for financial reform, basically is to make the financial system more robust and channel, long-term help economic growth. And, of course, more than a day reform take effect immediately, and will reflect on enterprise performance in slowly.
In the process of reform, are not without risks, such as mainland shift could delay, or will make reform than anticipated slow pace.
Peripheral demand falling
Import and export number is far expected Hudson, to the mainland market to reignite concerns of a hard landing of the economy. Today will be announced by economic data, market the most attention fixed asset investment growth situation, material will set 10 years new lows.
With foreign demand has is the mainstream view, but the march issue of the export growth was still 8.9%, the market so expected April of up to 8.5%, but the actual data to only 4.9%. Import data worse, and expected 10.9%, and the result is almost zero growth.
Data is expected Hudson, until even sing good bank of America merrill lynch economists LiuTing also acknowledged weak data, can have a negative effect on the stock market.
HSBC chief economist QuHongBin greater China region of imported zero growth "surprised" that domestic demand than imagination strong, if not in the recent fine-tuning lotto, the entity economy will slide further.
Solid shots to slow growth
Infrastructure is always the mainland economy "engine", but with real estate, railway construction cooling, tightening bondage, fixed asset investment growth turned weak. The market expected January to April solid shots for 20.5% growth, had reached a decade low.
As for the troubled the mainland already a long time of inflation, current situation is more stable. Market is expected to grow 3.4% on April CPI, slightly less than 3 month of 3.6%. Export, depressed, solid cast down, domestic demand is relatively rapidly, retail sales so far in material has an increase of 15%.
The solid cast exporters to remove bottom
WuQiSe economic environment, solid pitches, and export shares for recovery hopes, recently common tumbled, a cumulative ten percent this week.
Although Hong Kong stocks 6, thousand point fall tired, but since early has risen 9.7% still.
Looking through infrastructure, export related strands of material, run the win is very few, such as China building materials (market, information, comments) (03323) only 2.6% since early < mu > l, China ocean (market, information, comments) (01919) is flat, only smaller CSCL (market, information, comments) (02866) tired rose 18%, but yesterday urgent back to 5%, the weak already confirmed.
Recovery hopes for
Cement, mechanical and shipping strands of beer (Beta) play value higher, namely market should be lifting up more strength, but the mainland as expected pace but water, and subject to cold weather and European debt crisis hit, hopes for recovery, investors sell goods pitch.
As for whether the time out now? This temporary advised investors to endure the hand, solid export shares for the short .
Natural gas securities shares benefit from state policy
Peripheral economy the poor man only smell water stairs ring, to invest in a domestic Chinese shares more difficult. The mainland government launch multiple industry reform measures, such as financial reform and natural gas prices reform, or can bring investment opportunities.
Gas price reform is gradually enlarged
And refined products, electric power, coal and other resources than price, China is obviously low natural gas prices. Industry association forecast to 2015, China's natural gas supply and demand gap will reach 40 billion cubic meters, the industry growing calls for reform.
The mainland gas pricing mechanism reform to the three main key: 1. And the international price standards; 2. Establishing the city gas and natural gas price between linkage mechanism; 3. Optimize energy structure and improving energy efficiency.
The kunlun energy (market, information, comments) strong growth
The kunlun energy (00135) is a subsidiary of oil group, mainly engaged in natural gas exploration in the mainland and sales, backed by the parent company resources advantage, the company production growth strong, mainland natural gas prices is the biggest beneficiary of reform.
Part of the gas stocks of distributors, such as China resources gas (market, information, comments) (01193) and the Hong Kong China gas (market, information, comments) (01083), or may also benefit from price reform, for forming gas prices and the city gas prices linkage system, the mainland is one of the key to the reform of natural gas prices.
Financial reform frequently come
The news of the mainland financial reform frequently comes out, the wenzhou financial reform and cut securities after fees, Reuters quoted yesterday sources to point to, and ShangJiaoSuo are studying in securities regulatory, allow foreign companies in ShangJiaoSuo issue bonds. In addition, the securities regulatory also planned to reduce qualified foreign institutional investor "(QFII) application threshold, in order to attract more foreign money into the mainland market.
Citic securities (market, information, comments) direct benefit
Mainland financial reform measures, according to the measures of the capital market accounts for a considerable proportion of, such as cut trading charges and so on, in the securities market development is positive. According to the mainland media reports, the securities regulatory will release 11 brokers innovation business development support measures, including improving securities company finance content of product innovation ability, and support cross-border business development, etc. As the mainland securities industry leading, citic securities (06030) material directly benefit.
Boc Hong Kong (market, information, comments) (02388) sit to hug offshore yuan market share the huge offshore RMB deposit 30%), future capital market to the mainland and the international community, opening capital account is the premise. Boc as RMB deposit of the most concentrated Hong Kong bank, is expected to benefit from the mainland financial reform.