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Last December's gas erupts suddenly, and war is the leading role of energy and its New Orleans purchaser of sinopec hand in hand, and to be takeover of the object's gas management team, the market analysis and general media attention focused on the hot spot: the new Austrian energy and sinopec the acquisition and acquisitions means; The management team of the executives in the future, and China gas workers against takeovers signature; There is China recently gas former shareholders SK group to join the oil rich around China shares in the gas executives, and so on.
On capital markets, a leading enterprise in the industry of several mergers acquisitions and restructuring happened on issues such as the plot of the dramatic and appear not curious. Whether the Hong Kong stock market, or mainland China A shares, or other capital market,Is the 收購戰(zhàn)'s gas is concerned, is would cause so much attention, its core is not in the interests of the company for, but in the future China natural gas market what should be what kind of pattern?
If we are not from capital market investment point of view the purchase, but from the point of view of the ministry of commerce of antitrust investigation from the point of view of the natural gas market structure analysis of the deal, the deal would lead to the monopoly of the natural gas market? If monopoly will lead to what kind of monopoly? It takes serious analysis. Such as the most directly from the interests of consumers and the price of natural gas to analysis the purchase, we will find that the possibility of the natural gas market monopoly, is not form a cross-regional gas company, but in New Orleans and sinopec hand in hand will have any effect, New Orleans and China gas stacked the scale expansion in the downstream distributors, how will affect the market! Whether it will change the present situation of natural gas supply, division, and the formation of natural ?
Just for China's gas, although the company name is China and at present the city covered most, but in China the influence of natural gas downstream market is not as three big oil companies to the oil market, the main reason a downstream of the Chinese because New Orleans kunlun China resources gas on the five main services each world; 2 it is China's gas business is limited to natural gas industry city gas downstream, and not into the ShangZhongYou is very important. According to its public material said, it is engaged in fuel gas pipeline in China investment business operation and management and natural gas pipeline and compressed natural gas sales and distribution business, but it has no natural gas production right and JinKouQuan. In addition, the gas in the sales price of natural gas to almost no say, is strictly by ?
China's natural gas pricing mechanism is basically administrative dominant. The state development and reform commission determined pipelines and natural gas factory price of the natural gas prices reach pipe-conveying in all the provinces of the door stood price, the price has been one of the most important downstream of city gas terminal pricing basis. Each city gas face terminal customer sales prices in the door stood on the basis of price by local governments according to the principle of cost plus reasonable profit to determine.
If the new Austrian and China gas really close 2 for one, then combined body will have nearly 270 size of city gas franchise, which contains nearly 80 regional cities. Admittedly merger body will become city gas industry bibcock, but also should not be overestimated the impact of fuel gas operators pricing ability.
From the above pricing mechanism to see, the current Chinese gas or the new Austrian energy or, as well as other gas company, they're just natural gas downstream city gas market players, only size of points, any company is difficult to by setting and influence terminal to gain a unique advantage price position. For example, Beijing and Shanghai gas gas completely control the local market, but the local gas prices but not so climb. Of course, the private enterprise or foreign of state-owned enterprises, maybe more than local state-owned enterprises have more power to lobbying local governments to increase gas prices, because local state-owned enterprises can be from a variety of sources in get government support, and not just confined to the discretion of the gas prices.
From international practice to see natural gas industry and business，
From the upstream exploration and development of the largest amount invested, the risk is greatest; The middle pipeline transport is the second smallest, and downstream of the investment risks urban distribution least, so strong and market structure also is the profit distribution according to this order to decide.
China's oil three giants, actually has a monopoly on the China's natural gas completely upstream supply. Among them, the oil in about account for 80% of the market share. But the big three in the downstream distribution market is still not in a dominant position. The oil in the kunlun gas gas pin as gas and even China's new energy.
The whole process from natural gas supply to see, say will happen because monopoly for damage to the interests of the people price, will start from the three oil giant upstream suppliers and long as oil and gas pipeline operator's point of view, the second is from the point of view of retail. The truth is simple, because no natural gas pipelines and control, also didn't "gas source in the market" the energy.
Extensive use of natural gas in China began in 2004, with the power of the country this year built a line of west-east gas transmission project began to run. The project is in the central to the oil. It started from xinjiang winding in east China sea thousands of arrive, how to estimate their significance too much. Fencing hand oil completely can be proud to say that, it to do so is the responsibility of natural gas supply countries. Of course it is not without the got up early, and therefore get significant return, such as the increase of assets, the future of the rich resources reserve and cash income.
Even if not whole price (such as not calculate the total production, 2010 years, oil production reached 63.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas oil, more than 70% of the market than), even though it is only a west-east gas transmission pipeline average price per cubic meter a floating pipe-conveying money, according to the natural gas pipeline and oil in the business sector to calculate the amount, petrochina's earnings per share to increase by 0.001 yuan, a total of 183 million yuan. If according to the oil giant's vision of natural gas pricing mechanism (of guangdong is a pilot to one meeting) to observe it, the future of this part of the oil giant it might produce hard to imagine profits. Especially if natural gas pricing mechanism to international standard words (natural gas prices than domestic high international about 30% to 50%).
But national west-east gas transmission strategic objective, but not to simply give which business links with excess profit. This is national energy consumption structure change is mainly for fundamental change as the largest coal energy consumption and promotion of clean energy strategy. This is a historic strategy. As is known to all, natural gas prices are known most reasonable clean energy. But China's use of natural gas but very few, according to BP statistical data, in 2008, China's natural gas consumption accounts for an energy (oil and gas coal hydropower nuclear power) the proportion of about 3.6%, much lower than the world's natural gas consumption ratio of 24.1%.
From the point of view of this strategy, said the ministry of commerce of China gas purchase really start of the events of the antitrust review have positive significance. It is actually to alert for oil the big three and downstream of the gas company to alert as sinopec borrow way New Orleans energy future sales of natural gas market layout. In theory, the industry will limit the option of consumer monopoly, energy of relative price or not really a reflection of the relative scarcity and practical resources market demand, and in the long term impact national adjustment resource structure of the strategic intent.
If the new Austrian acquire Chinese gas no sinopec background, pure compare the two company's assets conditions and operating ability, the new Austrian energy acquisition some small cart as Malawi. Both are total assets of nearly 7 billion, China gas more, and China gas in the authorized to operate the number of cities and has imported qualification is one win, the new Austrian energy without such as sinopec, the oil giant endorsed, is difficult to start overall strength by a takeover offer.
If the purchase of New Orleans is not hostile, but both parties are in merger because the natural gas market segment of the professional background and produce the merger of desire, also should be wary about the new Austrian energy and China the merger of the body and the gas giant form the tendency of collusion. Perhaps the distribution of natural gas downstream of the powerful professional company, more powerful constraint oil the big three, but if the upstream and downstream with the two giant common words, natural gas industry could also be gradually and of refined oil market homogeneous structure, and the future of the natural gas price I'm afraid will also be like now oil prices are generally.