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US natural gas analysis
Spring of next year, according to the plan, which was once the largest importer of natural gas will be the first time US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, perhaps two or three years or else the United States will become a net exporter of natural gas, making it Russia, Qatar, these conventional gas real competitor exporting countries. As President Obama said, the United States for many years the dream of "energy independence" has never been so close to realization.
Back in time. In 1954, there was a famous American lawsuit, Phillips Petroleum and natural gas prices because Wisconsin government fought a lawsuit issue, a direct result of the US government issued a new decree, began full control interstate natural gas sales prices.
Put another way, it is almost the government to develop natural gas prices. This control is very natural to take care of the interests of consumers, because they represent the majority of public opinion. Some experts have analyzed gas prices during this period, a lot of the time, the price of the government under the control of suppliers is to make ends meet, the result is increasingly tight supply.
The Carter administration, the situation has been more serious, however, is given to explain the large oil companies is: Insufficient US natural gas resources, is a "lack of gas" countries.
Exxon was organized by hundreds of geologists to study the results obtained: the United States is only about 10 trillion cubic meters or so economically recoverable natural gas resources (and now China's natural gas resource estimate is basically an order of magnitude) thereby draw conclusions lack of gas.
Day in early March 1977, Washington or the chill of the season, the avenue only sporadic morning run by the House of Representatives building three hearings hall is a warm atmosphere, new gas bill is being heated discussion, liberalized natural gas price controls and clear resource security capacity is everyone's core concerns, the new policy ready.
The famous American industrialist and scholar Robert natural gas Hefner III attended that famous 1977 debate, after years of debate he recalled the scene of that hearing, is still fresh in our memory.
Gas chief geologist Zhaleisiji Federal Energy Commission believes that policy should be based on the basis of lack of natural gas resources, even if liberalized gas prices, gas production can not be effectively increased, and natural gas should be limited to a certain range of use .
The Director of the US Energy O'Leary also believes that natural gas supply will fall, so to prudent use of natural gas, good alternatives.
Compared with these famous people, sitting Moxi Robert considered unremarkable, his small gas companies are to develop deep gas and exhaust think Satan into account. He certainly can not agree with those views, then argue, that the abundant US natural gas resources, but will continue to have new discoveries, the key is to play the role of the market, to encourage innovation, attract investment in new areas, so there will be greater supply, new markets will be developed. It now appears that he is more like a prophet American natural gas era.
Although Robert Hefner III on behalf of small and medium sized energy companies are weak, but also won a lot of independent geologists agree, to some extent reverse the House atmosphere of public opinion, pushing the US government eventually selected according to the "fresh air "" old fashioned "gradually liberalized natural gas prices.
However, this victory was not complete, and this complex "Emergency Natural Gas Act," accompanied, it is another one "fuel use Act," the bill's ban on new plants and factories use natural gas, which is the most the potential size of the natural gas users. Followed by the liberalization of prices stimulate supply began to increase, but market development has obstacles, which also foreshadowed trouble later.
After the implementation of the new Act, the United States from the first deep gas price liberalization began, setting off a wave of drilling boom, prices, a rapid increase in supply, the gradual emergence of a situation of oversupply.
During this period, the United States also experienced serious inflation crisis, the economic bubble burst in 1982, natural gas prices plummeted, a large number of gas suppliers bankruptcy, unemployment, the device is sold overseas. Natural gas industry in the United States this slump began more than a decade trough.
But it was during this period, the market-oriented reforms of the energy sector continue to promote the United States, not only all the liberalized natural gas prices, also canceled a lot of market restrictions. At the same time government regulatory capacity is also greatly enhanced, fair trade environment matures.
In 1989, when McClendon and Ward founded Chesapeake, began to shale gas drilling, when only eight employees and $ 50,000. University majoring in history McClendon no fetters on the development of natural gas, but it has become his advantage. This contrarian attack self-employed company in 2009 became the nation's largest natural gas producer, the achievements of a typical American dream story. Until Exxon spent $ 41 billion acquisition of additional heavily after a shale gas producers XTO, was finally recaptured the US natural gas boss chair.
In conventional petroleum geologists and large international oil and gas companies opinion, mining and gas from shale was a crazy idea, because shale source rocks has been seen as rock or angry, it's another function is as a cover layer. Only migration of oil and gas from shale came out, reservoir development in the space where people can like pumping from the same reservoir of oil and gas recovery.
Exploitation of oil and gas from shale, the equivalent as direct rainwater in the sky, there will be no economy. However, advances in technology and reduce costs, especially in horizontal wells and fracturing constantly improve the technology, but this becomes a reality, and technological progress and cost reduction, is done by small companies and the self-employed unknown of.
Mitchell Energy Corporation is self-employed in hundreds of natural gas to another outstanding representative, in order to save money, Mitchell company accidentally discovered water fracturing of shale gas development and better results; we also need to mention EOG The company, from the infamous Enron desorbed EOG company hard, and finally to become a symbol of Bakken shale shale gas notorious ......
The self-employed who use natural gas operation instructions, natural gas does not depend on the same old theoretical calculations out of the office, only innovative technology and real investment to drop down, will have more gas to be found and produced.
This is reminiscent of an old saying oil and gas industry, oil and gas resources first to exist in the minds of geologists, then they can be found. This is the essence of innovation, but here's innovators not only include geologists, including more adventurous investors.
Today, natural gas seems to have reached a turning point. US natural gas at low prices in the background, all the way down, Henry Hub spot price is only about per million British thermal units a little more than $ 2, the equivalent of about 5 cents RMB per cubic meter. Even so, the US natural gas production is still not reduced, sit tight in the top spot for many years the world's largest natural gas producing countries.
By the end of 2012 to early 2013, over whether the issue should be allowed to export natural gas, both inside and outside the United States Congress fierce debate again.
The debate, known as the conservative tradition of the United States once again to relax controls, adjust the policy severely restricted energy exports, agreed to export natural gas, so that policy adjustments will not only benefit this natural gas consumption and importing countries in Asia, but also more benefit domestic natural gas production sustainability, from a global perspective, for the upgrading of clean energy will also play a greater role. The IEA expects 2020 US LNG export volume reached 42 million tons (57 billion m3), the United States LNG exports in 2030 will reach about 73 million tons (99 billion m3) peak and will continue until 2040.
Let the market play a decisive role in the gas sector, the US government is to practice these words with actions.