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Shell energy reports look good natural gas prospects for development
On March 1, 2013, royal Dutch shell group, which released the new energy outlook report, in 2060, the world's population will reach 9.5 billion, the rapid development of emerging countries will lead to a countless number of people out of poverty. Global energy demand will double over the next 50 years. In the new energy outlook, shell think possible two new 21st century, natural gas or solar energy is expected to become the world's main energy source in the future.
Shell will be two scenarios, respectively named "mountain" and "ocean", the first scene, according to the "mountain" by 2030, more clean natural gas will become the world's most important sources of energy, at the same time accompanied by measures that reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the first place. Another scene, according to "ocean", by 2070, the solar energy will become the main resource, but slow to respond to climate change.
According to introducing, "alpine" scenarios on the global economy steady development, and policy in the building play an important role in the global energy system and environmental protection.
Cleaner-burning natural gas will become the pillar of the global energy system, replace coal as fuel in many areas, and began to widely used in the field of transportation. At present, in the field of commercial vehicle, gas products have present a rapid development trend, LNG trucks for many commercial vehicle companies focus on r&d and marketing of products.
In the "mountain" scenario, by 2035, about the profound change of the transportation, makes the global demand for oil. Roads by the end of this century most of the cars and trucks would be powered by electricity and hydrogen. From power plants, oil refineries and other industrial facilities to capture carbon dioxide emissions technology will be widely used, this will make the energy sector co2 emissions in 2060 close to zero.
In the "sea" scenario outlined by the world, prosperity but not stable, the energy outlook is mainly decided by the market and civil society, and not dominated by the government policy. Resistance from the public and slow implementation of related policies, technology, will limit nuclear power development and the natural gas development outside North America. Until at least the middle of this century, coal is widely used in power generation.
"Ocean" scene assuming no decision-making support, co2 capture and sequestration technology will develop slowly. By the middle of this century, capture and sequestration accounted for only 10% of global carbon dioxide emissions. By 2075, that rate could reach 25%. "Ocean" scene, therefore, than the "mountain" scene late 30 years to realize zero emission to generate electricity.
In the "sea" scenario, high energy prices will promote the difficult mining development of oil resources, and promote the production of biofuels. The century 20 s and 30 s, oil demand will continue to increase, smooth until 2040. By the middle of this century, 70% of the land people will still use liquid fuel.
In addition, the high price of fuel will also improve energy efficiency and motivate the development of solar energy utilization. By 2070, the solar photovoltaic panel will become the world's main source of energy. The installation of a large public opposition to wind turbines, wind power will lead to a hair
Exhibition is slow. Due to coal and oil demand increased, the carbon dioxide capture and storage technology can not get support, and the slow development of natural gas outside North America, the "sea" SuiJing greenhouse gas emissions will be 25% higher than the "mountain" scene.
The above two scenarios shell is believed that by 2100, the world will basically realize zero carbon emissions. Achieve this goal is one of the conditions of using more emission reduction technology, stop releasing co2 into the atmosphere, such as the burning of biomass power generation, and storing emissions of carbon dioxide underground. Although "ocean" scenario indicates the use of solar energy will be popular, but the scene shows in the next century, compared with the "mountain" scene, "sea" scene in fossil fuel use and co2 emissions are higher. "Ocean" scene, therefore, may have more impact on the global climate.
Shell said, this kind of scenario analysis is designed to focus on between now and 2100 the economy, politics and energy development trend. Government policies may be the construction of the key factors in the future. "The scene shows, in the coming years, choice of the government, enterprises and individuals will have a significant impact for the future." Shell's chief executive, "fu said, the enterprise and the government to seek a new way of cooperation, related policies, promote the development and use of clean energy and energy efficiency.