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"Natural gas is about to enter a golden age, the key to the future of the world is a kind of abnormal gas resources huge success development. North America experience shows that unconventional natural gas especially shale gas, can be in the economic use." The international energy agency (IEA) 29 "issued by the natural gas of the golden age of the golden rule of this opening this report.
According to the IEA predicted that global demand for gas will be in 2010-2035 years growth of more than 50%, and shale gas and other unconventional natural gas proportion by the current 14% will rise from 32% to. If shale gas get mass exploitation, to 2035, the price of gas will be 18% lower than it is now. In addition, still will rewrite the global energy territory, affect other energy price trend, thus further influences the domestic economy and trade.
"Golden age" coming
"In 2010-2035, the global demand for gas will be increased by more than 50% of the natural gas. Increased demand from coal, oil, which is equivalent to the combined, growth and nuclear power than renewable energy and the growth in global energy structure. Natural gas in the share of 25% in 2035, more than coal become second only to oil's second big a energy." IEA report said.
Natural gas for the coming of the "golden era", which benefit from the demand a sharp increase in recent years shale gas also goes to the success of the natural gas and unconventional development. "It is no exaggeration to say, unconventional natural gas will break the existing energy pattern, and bring the energy supply of geographic territory great changes." IEA chief economics French bishop in bangalore Lawrence said.
The report is expected to shale gas unconventional natural gas output will mainly in 2035 to 1.6 trillion cubic meters, in this period will account for the increased supply of natural gas nearly two-thirds. In addition, unconventional natural gas in total share of natural gas production from 14% today rose to 32% in 2035.
"Most of the growth in 2020 because of a new producer, after takes time to build a commercial industry." The report is expected in the forecast period, the biggest producers were unconventional natural gas the United States and China. Among them, the United States will lead Russia as the world's largest natural gas producer; But because China has a huge unconventional resources foundation, by 2020 the exceptional natural gas production will begin to rapid growth. In addition, Australia, India, Canada and Indonesia also has greatly increased, the European Union's unconventional natural gas production is leading by a polish.
The IEA predicts, shale gas get if the large-scale development, by 2035, the European Union's gas imports will each year than now reduces $65 billion, China would reduce the $90 billion, and the United States, Canada will be natural gas for exporters and earn 35 billion dollars. In addition, Russia, the Middle East's natural gas exports will now drop than 1/3.
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Blow to "low gas price cyclone"
"If shale gas get large-scale mining use, by 2035, Europe's natural gas prices will be 18% lower than it is now." Lawrence rolls says bishop method.
This effect has appeared in the United States. Because of the rapid growth of the shale gas, the U.S. natural gas prices had fallen to its lowest for ten years. The data show that in 2005, the United States gas prices for $9 per million British thermal units (BTU), 2011 fall to $4, and the current price of gas will only for $2.15.
It is thought that, low natural gas is in the us become a Renaissance tidal wave. Goldman sachs in a recent report about shale gas, in 2011, the United States accounts for coal-fired power the proportion of total power generation has 40%, its lowest level for more than 60 years, power generation is gradually to the natural gas energy transfer. Because of this, the past three years, the American industrial power costs flat, and in the European Union, the electricity price average rose 2.3% in the same period.
"Energy accounted for 8% of the cost of the total investment, including natural gas accounts for 14% of the cost of energy related, and gasoline and coal is 50%. More rapid gas replacement plus gas prices could significantly improve the continued low profit margins to the United States, the world's industrial enterprises in win market share." The report says, the American economy relative to the improvement of the European economy, energy prices are relatively cheap that is one of the reasons.
Ordinary people is also low gas price gainer. The United States cut SiPiKe (Chesapeake energy chief executive mike Reid in a recent interview said, if consider price drop from the left over, and consider the home heating fuel and a decline in the cost of that car fuel also becomes the gas, so American families can save a year on average spending more than $2500. Residents real income got considerable ascension, in addition, which has the United States economic prosperity also is expected to create 1 million jobs.
Because many power plants are giving up the high cost of coal and oil, and natural gas migration, this also indirectly down oil prices. Wing Ming financial corp MFS investment management company's honorary chairman Robert d&l points out, because the shale gas field water pressure to cause crack the use of technology, America's natural gas is greatly improved. Natural gas than clean coal, oil cheaper than is the future instead of coal and oil important energy. At present in the United States has a large natural gas for power generation as well as the truck and bus fuel. Natural gas production increase, the global energy use will no longer rely heavily on the Middle East.
Try solution environment problems
"Natural gas is about to enter the golden time of earnings, but only in the case of environment and acceptable way for the world as a kind of abnormal gas reserves huge shale gas, density, gas and coalbed methane (CBM)-most of the development, can come true." IEA report, unconventional natural gas development and countless obstacles need to overcome, one of which is associated with mining social and environmental concerns.
Critics think, unconventional natural gas production is a kind of intensive industrial process, will generally cause to the environment than conventional gas development more influence, such as water pollution, water hydraulic fracturing, of technology used in the chemical products, aquifers pollution and sewage disposal worries, air pollution and noise pollution, etc. Some European countries are therefore prohibited or restricted shale gas mining, such as France, Bulgaria.
"Shale gas drilling process needs a lot of water really is a problem, especially for new shale gas development area. If using a large compressed mechanical and diesel engine drilling, air pollution is also worrying. In addition to the social influence, such as drilling area will suddenly have a lot of trucks into construction, road increase, and so on." Cambridge energy research association chairman Daniel "gold said in an interview.
"But our recent studies have concluded that the biggest worry about--people in hydraulic fracturing process using chemicals into water less chance of its homework deep. Because position" He then added, "we have a practical Suggestions about twenty can solve the above these problems."
According to the problems, IEA in its report puts forward a set of "golden rule", emphasize the implementation of a fully transparent, of environment impact measuring and monitoring, and local communities to consult, thus for unconventional natural gas to pave the large-scale development, make the golden age of natural gas development become a reality.
This law proposal, carefully chosen drill site, minimize the earthquake and formation of fluid transmission between any risk, Through the high standards of design, construction and integrity tests prevent gas leakage from the aquifers; For water quality requirements, production quality and all the water unconventional natural gas production evaluation of wastewater monitoring; Production of the pollutant can through investment to reduce to completion phase dispels exhaust and burning. .